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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd